[market voice] lead price three consecutive negative demand is not good environmental protection is difficult to support alone?

SMM11, June 6-lead prices rose sharply last week as a result of frequent central eco-environmental protection and inspection actions, but then Shanghai lead ushered in three consecutive years. At the beginning of the 1812 contract, part of the long head escaped from the market, leading to a small dive, which fell below the 10-day moving average in one fell swoop. The center of gravity moves down during the day. Bearish sentiment increased in the afternoon, Shanghai lead shock down, as of the end of the day, Shanghai lead 1812 contract fell 1.68% to 18420 yuan / ton.

SMM interviewed the views of industry insiders, mostly believe that the market demand is currently in a downward state, London lead remains weak, may have a certain impact on lead in Shanghai.

Market voice:

First Futures / Song Xiaoli: lead ingot inventory continued to decline began to increase in small quantities, in addition, although the environmental inspection is still continuing, but at the end of the end; finally, battery consumption has not seen a significant improvement, the overall market transaction is poor. Although the supply of lead ingots has been reduced due to environmental inspection and production restrictions, the overall demand of the market is also in a downward state. Looking at the fundamentals of lead prices, there is a lack of favorable support. In the short term or continue to go down, we can see a line of 18000 yuan per ton below.

CIC Anxin / Xiao Jing: Shanghai lead fell sharply for the second consecutive trading day today, speeding up the monthly exchange between 1812 and 1901, although 1812 contracts quickly fell below 18500 yuan per ton, and market participants are not optimistic about the long-term lead upstream and downstream industry chain. The supply of recycled lead from upstream regulations will be more guaranteed next year, and downstream lead consumption will be negatively affected by electric bicycles and communication base stations, but this is long-term, and it is also important to see the cost of standardized output rising. At the current stage, we believe that the lack of deliverable lead ingot is the main factor to support the lead price, the spot lead price performance is stable, the rising range of the main contract is more than 200 yuan / ton on Tuesday. Empirically, the lead price short-term trading is more difficult, the lack of sufficient guidance within the day, although the short-term decline is large, but it is expected that 1811 of the contract delivery before the main single can still be held.

Guangzhou Futures / Li Jun: today, Shanghai lead weakened, mainly due to external drag, November 5, Lun lead fell 3.64%. The profit of domestic recycled lead enterprises will rise to 566.67 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the start of recycled lead enterprises is still restricted, and the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises is not high. In the short term, Lun lead remains weak, which may have a certain impact on Shanghai lead, but the environmental inspection continues, or the lead price is supported. Shanghai lead contract about 1812 short-term expected shock is weak, paying attention to the 18000 yuan / ton first-line support. However, it is worth noting that the lead futures stocks in the previous period are close to historical lows, which may lead to a forced position market. If the position is successful, the main contract 1812 will be boosted, and it is suggested that attention should be paid to the changes in lead stocks in the previous period.

Risk Tips:

Concerned about the impact of the results of the US mid-term elections on the foreign exchange, stock and metal markets in the past two days, the full results of the vote will be released at 16:00 Beijing time on November 7, and the SMM will follow up on the results in a timely manner.